The current pattern is showing a large  blocking scenario which shows up on all model guidance...this  Will force the motherloade of cold Arctic air south through Canada and the USA.  We have a rather strong heat ridge anchored over the Greater Antilles, this is important because it brings the element of warm, moist air this will  transported northward into the Sub Tropical Jet, so as storms come in form the Pacific Basin it helps to create a tapping mechanism of moisture allowing greater amounts of precipitation into our storm track.

 

I'm watching four systems in this sequence that are stretching back to the Sea of Japan. Squeezed by ridging in Alaska and Baffin Island/Greenland that allow these components to phase.

 

Starting with the disturbance in the Gulf of Alaska, this will drop down to West Texas, then recurve into the St. Lawrence Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing Severe weather and torrential rain and Mountain snow through the Northeast, Snow should be moderate to heavy on the left side of the path from the Ozark Plateau to the Great Lakes, NW New England and then Quebec. High winds will drive the colder air into Texas and Mexico.

 

The second system must be watched because with a huge dome of brutally cold air available, two complications may arise. One will be the threat of an ice storm. Overrunning is almost assured in a shallow cold air mass with that subtropical high in Hispaniola. 

 

As for the Northeast I expect the cold pool of Arctic air to have huge impacts in the 11-15 and 16-20 day periods. 

 

This will bring the chances for bigger winters storms from the Mid Atlantic through the Northeast..We should see a flexing of this pattern before another major reload begins and takes the Northeast through February and into March.